Iran War: Geopolitical and Market Impact – Investment View

Published: March 17, 2026

The conflict involving Iran has expanded from a regional military confrontation into a global energy disruption. Iranian attacks on commercial shipping have shut down traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route that normally carries roughly 20% of global oil supply, pushing oil prices sharply higher from about $60 per barrel in January to above $100.

Higher energy prices have increased volatility across global capital markets and raised concerns that inflation could re-accelerate if oil prices remain elevated. This could further weaken consumer confidence, weigh on economic growth, and potentially delay expected interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve.

How Is the Iran Conflict Affecting Global Energy Markets?
Energy-importing regions, particularly in Asia, are especially exposed to higher oil prices and supply disruptions, leading to the risk of broader geopolitical tensions. Governments have responded with measures including coordinated releases from strategic petroleum reserves to help stabilize energy markets and limit the impact on consumers, but these are temporary measures, not long-term solutions.

Is the Iran Conflict a Temporary or Long-Term Economic Shock?
The prevailing view is that the conflict represents a significant but temporary macroeconomic shock rather than a structural shift in the global economy. As a result, we have not made major changes to overall portfolio allocations.

At the margin, sectors such as energy, defense, and companies tied to strategic security and infrastructure spending appear positioned to benefit, and we have modestly increased exposure in some of these areas.

What Is the Biggest Risk to Global Markets?
The key risk would be a prolonged disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz that keeps oil prices elevated for an extended period. Sustained energy price pressure could materially affect inflation, monetary policy, and consumer spending.

Given the fluid nature of the situation, we continue to monitor developments closely and remain prepared to adjust portfolio positioning if conditions change.

For a brief summary of our perspective, you can view the video above. We understand this may be a stressful time and are here for you. As always, we appreciate the trust you place in us. We welcome your thoughts and comments and encourage you to reach out to your advisor with any questions you may have or to contact us at 212.492.7000.

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